Lei Feng network (search "Lei Feng network" public concern) : Author Li Zhiyong, ten years plank road programmers, there is a fun public number: pondering things, interested readers can pay attention.
The VC is actually predicting the future with incomplete information. Even if we can find a few logical logics, enough contingencies will make the result full of luck. After a year and a half of investment, the project has been overshadowed by a unicorn, liquidated the company, and dealt with bad projects. The experience is quite complicated.
| The strategic investment is a bit strangeThe venture capital itself is not complicated. The money giver obtains a series of rights after the money is paid. The core is the equity . The invested person must use this money to do what he wants to do. If it succeeds, the investor will get himself. The share represented by the equity. The reason why early investment is attractive is that the multiple return can be super high. Suppose that when a company is valued at 10 million yuan, it will be invested. If it is successfully withdrawn at the time of 1 billion yuan, it can basically be made more than 50 times (not a simple 100 times).
The key point of normal financial investment is very simple. It is to break down the investment behavior into people, trends, models, products, technologies, etc., under the ultimate goal of making money, and make judgments one by one. Early investment is difficult to measure on the data, so the core is a subjective judgment , the basic model of what does not play a big role, the dependence on people is extremely strong.
An alternative branch of venture capital is a strategic investment. Strategic investment and venture capital investment do not overlap completely because it does not matter whether it is early or late. However, even early strategic investment differs from what was said above.
Strategic investment also bears the mission of two dimensions : As an extension of the strategy, it must assist in achieving the strategic goals set by a certain company. It must also be rewarded as an investment, at least not losing money. In this way, in the final judgment, the strategic perspective can easily invade financial rationality. As a result, the risk of investment failure itself will rise further, and it will be easy to achieve strategic goals and financial goals. Therefore, it is easier said than done in terms of strategic investment, but it is actually more difficult to really make a better request for the parties and the company.
In fact, strategic investment needs to be made clear: how much can strategic appeals invade the financial rationality and how much risk can be accepted? Once this encroachment becomes indefinite, then all strategic investments will become failed investments, but as mentioned earlier, such a scale of grasp is non-digital, and is extremely subjective. This combined with the organizational structure of the country will make things more complicated.
The specific cultural ties make many companies in the country have the same organizational form as Liu Bei with the Han and the Three Kingdoms and Zhuge Zhang and Guan Zhang. This type of model leads the big brother with great authority, coupled with a high degree of human governance. Make basic issues such as strategy become vague. How can one distinguish between this strategy or the idea of ​​Ma Yun and Wang Jianlin? The will of the boss is not enough to distort the numbers, formulas, and Newton's laws, but it is still easy to influence the logic and opinions. As a result, strategic investment is easily changed.
My personal point of view is that only investment that fits the company's clearly defined course of action is strategic investment. Otherwise, it can be seen as financial investment, measured by the same financial criteria as the fund. The core difference from the fund is to limit the scope of the investment. If the growth of financial investment is good enough, it can fulfill the mission of the strategy. For example, if you invest in the early stages, it is also of strategic significance.
| Fortune and Law of Large Numbers in Venture CapitalThe genius again can't change the fact that the venture is highly risky in a specific case. It is very important to choose where to vote and when to vote because the choice affects the probability. Mining in the mining area and mining in the poor mining area are likely to dig gold, but the probability is not the same, that is to say, in the case of venture capital, the probability is actually related to life and death.
The three wave of the past: IT and traditional software, PC Internet, and mobile Internet are suitable for venture capitalism because of their low start-up costs (non-capital-intensive) and opportunities (large selection of investment targets). Better growth (easy money). The most representative product of venture capitalism is actually a product with network effect. Regardless of Facebook or Wechat, the product of unfamiliarity can also rise to a market value of US$3 billion within 1-2 years. The emergence of such products can be realized. Seen as a fortune given to the venture capital. In contrast, O2O is not so good. It involves the offline and needs to burn more money, but it is not easy to build barriers beyond the scale. Hardware can not be considered a very good target, the first is not easy to do, the second is not necessarily easy to sell well, even if it is easy to sell mostly less than the public level. The following new wave of technology-driven technology is similar to this. In the beginning, the valuation is relatively high, and many products are increasingly dependent on data, and the risk of growing small companies is getting higher—small companies are easy to build new products, but it is difficult. Create a new ecology. These will increase the risk of venture capital.
To sum up, we can say that the things that venture capitalists actually rely on are laws of large numbers. Each case has an indeterminate result, but when you really grasp the fortune and key points, the end result will show up. Necessity .
From the point of view of the law of large numbers, Fortune provides the most basic guarantee that the overall success or failure probability of a project that meets certain basic criteria is above a certain value, and appropriate intervention valuation ensures the inevitable profitable space. Each case theoretically has 10 times or more of the profit space, and then the overall success or failure probability, VC can have the ultimate profit. The basic purpose of judgments such as people, technology, and products is to go for chance and let the investment project be on a certain quality baseline. People in this dimension are particularly contingent in this dimension, the most difficult to control, such as may get money after the venture started a few brothers parted ways, probably Lei Jun was only set up the principle of only acquaintances.
From the above point of view, in the following years, the weather is not particularly good for VCs, and the probability of failure is higher on the overall probability of success or failure. If the valuation is high, the profitability space is compressed. This is more like the start of a venture winter. .
| Investment preferencesAs an extremely subjective activity, investment will reflect a certain personal preference . There is no right or wrong preference, but it does have an impact on the end result. It's harder for us to talk about a model than to run a train with a full mouth. If that is the case, then there is no preference but only right and wrong. There needs to be a certain degree of consistency behind the preferences so that the probabilities that are behind the preferences can be gained. If the preference itself is not inherently consistent, the uneven staffing can easily lead to poor results.
In the wave of science and technology, there are two points in the selection of entrepreneurial teams: First, it takes the lead to really have the hard skills needed for entrepreneurship; first, there must be better leadership skills . These two points are very rigid and not preferred. Ma Yun can start a business as Taobao, but it is hard to believe that he can start an artificial intelligence company.
However, whether or not the target team should be a one-dimensional structure and whether the founder should be like a sweeping squad or should have great incitement capabilities, different people will have different choices, and thus produce different preferences.
Our cultural genes lead to a relatively unstable organizational structure, and the instability caused by this instability continues until the company has a certain monopoly status. This is the worst, but it will be fatal at the very beginning. So I personally feel that the entrepreneurial team still has a one-dimensional structure. There is a big brother who leads , and there are multiple co-founders who believe in him. It is not easy to go wrong in the middle. This in turn requires that the core team must not be temporarily paralyzed, and it is best to have had experience in depth in the past.
Does the second point need a person with a particularly strong flicker? Under the tide of technology, I think that the ability to make up for fuzziness can be made up. It is even more difficult for companies to have good combat effectiveness. The former is 0. The latter is 1. I tend to think that the sweepers have an advantage, although they will initially suffer a loss. The people I contact with most resemble Chen Xiaoliang who is a sonic-scientist. The team of sound-scientific technology is a silent but really capable team. The beginning is mainly based on the background to determine the team, such as the origin of the acoustics, the combat effectiveness should not be too bad. Let me evaluate elevation is the latter thing, a very troublesome acoustic engineering problem put forward by the product team, did not get a lot of good, and the result was a person out of voice. This is pure hard work and hard work. There is nothing fake space. However, the team of Sound Intelligence has not been very good at propaganda, which makes them a lot worse than the sound of the sound of Spitz and Cloud. However, I think such companies are more suitable to become the subject of venture capital, because once the time comes, propaganda keep up, then the valuation may have a rapid increase, it is a process with 1 followed by 0.
The third point is whether you need someone who really wants to make money, or who needs a moderate degree of idealism.
In this regard, I tend to think that people with moderate idealism are more reliable. After all, entrepreneurship is a very difficult matter and the probability of failure is extremely high. Purely from the point of view of making money, most of the time is not as good as putting all the money into a more cost-effective way. In the wave of technology-driven waves, the exit cycle may be lengthening, and individual incentives to make money are likely to be wiped out soon after this long cycle. The newly-photographed Journey to the West has theoretically talked about more money, and science and technology have improved. It should have been better, but in fact almost everyone thinks that the old version is better, and the poorest estimate is that little thought. difference.
| SummaryThe last thing I want to say is that venture capital is not a technology. It is not even a profession. There is no industry experience or good experience. It is not appropriate to do this. This is not so fun to live, many people would like to invest in and out of the siege is almost, really did not necessarily like to estimate.
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