Supply and demand tension led to panel prices
Since November, TV panel prices have continued to increase. With the exception of small and medium sizes of 32 inches and below, medium and large size still maintains price increases. According to AVC's display of industrial chain data: Since the inflection point began to rebound in April this year, the 32-inch gain was 46.2%, the 43-inch gain was 63%, the 49-inch gain was 38.4%, and the 50-inch gain was 64.7%. The 55-inch increase was 18.8%, and the 65-inch increase was 13.3%. It can be seen that the 32-inch, 40-43 inch current price is already higher than the previous price drop in 2015.
Analysis of this round of price increases, we can easily find that although the overall price increase is due to tight supply and demand factors, but due to the different size and circumstances of the production of the main panel factory, so the specific leader in the different price increases are also different : Mainland China's panel makers took the lead in initiating 32-inch price hikes, and the short-term gains were staggering. Then Taiwanese and Korean manufacturers in China became the main price increasers for 40-inch, 43-inch, 49-inch, and 55-inch sizes, respectively. Under the background of the double pressure of panel makers' overall loss, it is not difficult to understand this wave of fierce price increases.
Judging from the situation on the panel side, the large size of China's mainland panel makers will be more resolute, and the 32-inch transfer strategy to other size segments will continue. At the same time, the possible future TV production capacity expansion and IT/mobile productivity competition will also be correct. Supply has a great influence. The relative capacity of Korean panel makers is stable. In the future, more efforts will be made to transfer high value-added products such as OLED, curved surface, borderless, and oversized products. The current supply is very tight. This has become a strong incentive for them to increase their prices, and at the same time it will shut down the plant. Factors such as capacity transfer and process adjustment will also continue to ferment, and will affect the panel supply; China's Taiwanese panel makers are mainly faced with product structure adjustments such as 43-inch and 45-inch, conventional and commercial switching.
Machine manufacturers make strategic adjustments
From the perspective of the complete machine, the gross profit of the entire plant has changed greatly with the increase in panel prices. The 40- to 43-inch area has been considered to be the tightest supply segment, and the price increase is also the fastest. The gross margin of the machine is already at the lowest level, less than 20%, 32 inches is relatively good at around 30% through product structure adjustment, and the 49/55 inch gross margin is between 25% and 30%, so driven by gross profit, The entire plant will gradually shift its 40- to 43-inch demand. However, due to the trend of large size, although the 32-inch profitability is very good, the whole plant will eventually shift upwards by more 49 to 55 inches. However, if the price continues to rise and the major size is at a loss, the situation will appear. The change, because we know that the price rise, the entire plant does not have the pressure of inventory, so the demand release is relatively large, but as the cost pressure increases and New Year's Day, the Spring Festival's final wave of stocking gradually ended, demand will further reduce, Therefore, we believe that the continued sharp increase in panel prices will also be difficult to maintain.
The competition for color TV in China is very fierce. It is the normal state of the industry to seize market share through price war. However, in recent years, with the intensification of losses in brand factories and feedback from the capital market, brand manufacturers have become more rational and pragmatic in the operation of color TVs. From the original emphasis on shipments and market share, they began to shift their focus on sales and profits. Blindly pursue the scale effect and the growth of shipments. Therefore, under the huge cost pressure brought about by the continuous rise in the price of this round of panel, the whole machine manufacturers have also begun to make strategic adjustments. On the one hand, the entire machine manufacturer began to optimize the overall product structure, shifting from low gross profit to higher gross profit, and more profitable product size, as previously analyzed, starting from 32 inches and 40 to 43 inches to 49 inches and 50 inches. , 55 inch and other size segment transfer, from the recent changes in panel size requirements and prices can be clearly seen; on the other hand, the overall manufacturer's terminal price strategy has also begun to be more flexible, such as LeTV just released a statement, November From the 25th, 40-inch, 43-inch, 50-inch, and 55-inch models will increase their prices by 100 yuan per unit, and some 65-inch models will increase by 300 yuan per unit. Although LeTV's supply chain funding pressure is an important factor in its price increase, but the current panel prices are high, making machine manufacturers increasingly unprofitable is also indisputable fact, follow-up whether there are other manufacturers to continue to follow up prices, it is also We need to focus on.
TV will only go up or it will become history
The rise in panel prices has brought about a series of chain reactions. However, this round of price increases does not seem to be so persistent. It will stop in the first quarter of next year. From the size point of view, due to the supply of 32-inch control, coupled with the price increase, so there will be an increase in demand in the future, the price will fluctuate slowly and will not crash the cliff-type; 40-43 inches, although the demand is strong, but The declining gross profit factor will shift its demand to other sizes, and the price increase trend is expected to stop. Due to the 32-inch transfer and 40- to 43-inch supply problems, the future 49/50 inch will be a very important size, and it is expected that It will be the most demanding size, and the terminal's share will increase further.
From the perspective of capacity, China's 8.5-generation line currently has a large number of production capacity. Panel makers have sufficient experience and ability to adjust products and production capacity. Therefore, dynamic changes and sawing will occur in supply of different sizes.
Generally speaking, the inventory status after the peak season is an important factor affecting the follow-up supply and demand conditions. The stocks at the end of December, early January and after the Spring Festival will be the nodes we will focus on, which will determine the overall supply and demand and panel prices for the next year. Trends.
Judging from the demand for future orders, the balance of supply and demand will remain tight in the first quarter of next year. The competition for resource allocation is still a headache for panel makers and complete plants. However, the inventory status of the entire plant needs to be vigilant. In order to ensure profits, the entire machine manufacturer will adjust the terminal strategy, optimize the product structure, and continuously increase the size. At the same time, TV will only decline if it does not rise. TV price increases will become more and more recognized. Public behavior.
It should be said that the fierce fluctuations in supply and demand will always be opportunities for the speculators to benefit or be damaged. For real companies, the stable supply and demand under a reasonable profit level is the most favorable and most reasonable condition for the company. If it continues to be broken, I believe it will be a very unfavorable situation for either the panel maker or the complete factory.
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