Hawking predicted that the creation of AI may be the last major event in human history

"I live an extraordinary life on this planet, while using my mind and the laws of physics to travel through the universe. I have been to the farthest part of the galaxy, entered the black hole, and returned to the origin of time. On earth, I have experienced High tides and lows, turbulence and peace, success and pain. I have been rich, poor, healthy, disabled. I have been praised and criticized, but I have never been ignored."

-Hawking, "Brief Answers to the Big Questions"

Recently, Hawking’s last book "Brief Answers to the Big Questions" was officially published. In the book, Hawking tried to answer several questions: Will human beings survive the challenge? Should we colonize in space? Does God really exist?

Hawking predicted that the creation of AI may be the last major event in human history

The creation of AI may be the last major event in human history

The biggest mistake human beings make is that science fiction is just science fiction, and highly intelligent machines cannot be popularized in people's lives.

Hawking believes that when AI becomes better than humans in the field of artificial intelligence design, so that it can recursively improve itself without human help, we may face an intelligence explosion, which will eventually lead to the intelligence of the machine being far Beyond us.

So far, the original form of artificial intelligence has proven very useful, and Hawking fears that if something can be created to rival or surpass humans, the consequences will be disastrous. Human beings are limited by slow biological evolution, unable to compete, and will be replaced. In the future, artificial intelligence can develop its own will, a will that conflicts with our will.

In the future, the emergence of superintelligence will bring explosive changes to mankind. A superintelligent artificial intelligence will be very good at achieving its goals. If these goals are inconsistent with ours, humans will be in huge trouble.

Hawking believes that the creation of artificial intelligence will be the biggest event in human history. Unfortunately, it may also be the last one, unless we learn how to avoid risks.

Hawking predicted that the creation of AI may be the last major event in human history

Interstellar expansion may be the only way for humans to save themselves

Hawking believes that at some point in the next 1,000 years, it is inevitable that a nuclear confrontation or environmental disaster will paralyze the planet. At that time, Hawking hopes and believes that the intelligent race of mankind will find a way to get rid of the rough shackles of the earth and survive this disaster.

It now appears that tapping the chances of survival on other planets is the only choice for mankind in the face of the catastrophe. Mankind needs to rekindle the enthusiasm of space travel in the early 1960s to explore other solar systems.

Interstellar expansion may be the only way to save mankind.

Hawking predicted that the creation of AI may be the last major event in human history

New life forms of interstellar travel machines will appear

According to the theory of relativity, it takes about 100,000 years for humans to reach the center of the galaxy.

In science fiction, people overcome this difficulty by distorting space or traversing dimensions. But Hawking believes that these are impossible to achieve, no matter how smart life becomes.

In the future, there may be a simpler method-almost within our capabilities-to design a machine that can last long enough for interstellar travel. When people reach a new star, they can land on a suitable planet and mine more material to make more machines, which can be sent to more stars.

Such a machine will be a new form of life, based on mechanical and electronic components rather than macromolecules. They may eventually replace DNA-based life, just as DNA may replace early life.

Hawking predicted that the creation of AI may be the last major event in human history

Superman after gene editing appeared in this century

In Darwin’s theory of evolution, time makes people smarter and kinder, but obviously, human beings don’t have so much time to wait for natural evolution. We are entering a new stage. This stage may be called "self-designed evolution"— -Humans will be able to change and improve our DNA, and improve the defects we show under the control of the original DNA.

The intelligence controlled by multiple genes is much more difficult to improve, but it is not impossible. Hawking is convinced that in this century people will discover how to modify intelligence and instincts, such as aggressiveness. Therefore, he predicted that the law against human genetic engineering might be passed. But some people cannot resist the temptation to improve human characteristics, such as memory size, disease resistance, and longevity.

Once people try this "temptation", Superman will appear. Once such a superman appears, those humans who cannot compete with it will face major problems, and they will die out or become unimportant. On the contrary, those who change their genes by self-design will improve themselves faster and faster.

Hawking predicted that the creation of AI may be the last major event in human history

Are there other intelligent lives in the universe?

This issue has been debated for a long time.

Hawking proposed several possibilities.

We are accustomed to thinking that intelligent life is the inevitable result of evolution, but it is more likely that evolution is a random process, and intelligence is only one of many possible outcomes.

From the perspective of the evolutionary chronology, perhaps intelligence is an unlikely development for life on earth, because it takes a long time to go from a single cell to a multicellular organism-2.5 billion years-which is a necessary precursor of intelligence , So this is consistent with the hypothesis that the probability of life developing intelligence is very low. In this case, we may expect to find many other life forms in the galaxy, but we are unlikely to find intelligent life.

Another type of life that cannot develop to the intelligent stage may be the collision of an asteroid or a comet with a planet. Some people believe that about 66 million years ago, a relatively small celestial body collided with the earth, leading to the extinction of the dinosaurs. Some early small mammals survived, but any animal as large as a human will almost certainly be wiped out.

Hawking predicted that the creation of AI may be the last major event in human history

There is also a possibility that life has a reasonable possibility to form and evolve into intelligent creatures, but the system becomes unstable and intelligent life destroys itself. This will be a pessimistic conclusion, Hawking said, I hope this is not true.

He is more inclined to the fourth possibility: we ignore other forms of intelligent life. At our current stage, the encounter with a more advanced civilization may be a bit like the encounter between the American inhabitants and Columbus, and Hawking believes that the other party will be more advanced because of this.

Hawking had many prophecies during his lifetime, and they were fulfilled one by one in the process of human development. What is your opinion on the conjectures in this book?

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