ITRI's IKK Semiconductor Production Growth Rate Down Again

After the Industrial Technology Research Institute of IEK revised down the production growth rate of the semiconductor industry in Taiwan this year on August 10, which was -5.8%, the negative news of the global economy continued due to the sharp turnaround in the middle of August. The growth rate was revised downwards again yesterday (25th). It is estimated that the decline in the output value of the semiconductor industry will continue to expand to -11.3% this year, with a larger reduction in foundry and memory.

In 2010, the output value of the semiconductor industry in Taiwan reached 1.716 trillion yuan. The IEK announced on August 10 that the output value of this year was 1.6365 trillion yuan, a 5.8% decline from 2010. However, the IEK revised its production value again to 1 trillion 524.14 billion yuan yesterday, a drop of more than 1 percent to reach -11.3%.

Yang Ruilin, manager of IC and Process Research Department of IEK System at ITRI pointed out that the figure released on August 10 was IEK's assistance to the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association (TSIC) for a questionnaire survey conducted by major semiconductor manufacturers in Taiwan. information. Subsequently, IEK also accepted the ITIS plan of the Ministry of Economic Affairs to commission semiconductor industry output value forecast. Since the economy turned badly in mid-August, it decided to further increase the growth rate.

Yang Ruilin said that in the figures released this time, the IC design industry remained at -8.7% as the previous estimate. The biggest change came from wafer foundry and DRAM, which had the largest proportion of output value, and foundry’s part. TSMC’s chairman Zhang Zhongmou’s report on the results of the 3rd quarter was announced at the end of July’s law meeting, but considered 4th. After the quarterly inventory goes, performance will start to rise again.

Yang Ruilin pointed out that in the past, IEK would propose related predictions based on the semiconductor industry boss, but the economy continued to decline in August, and it is estimated that the fourth quarter will also change sharply. The output value will also show negative growth compared to the third quarter. Therefore, IEK It did not follow the statement of TSMC that the growth rate of wafer production workers under this year's maintenance was -5.2%. While DRAM prices continue to bottom out, it is estimated that the fourth quarter will continue to decline.

As part of the packaging and testing industry, Yang Ruilin pointed out that the business cycle of the packaging and testing industry is about 1 quarter slower than that of the semiconductor manufacturing industry. The forecast made on August 10th is still positive. It is expected that negative growth will only occur in the first quarter of next year. However, during the third quarter of this year, the peak season was not prosperous, and the outlook for the fourth quarter was not optimistic. Therefore, the output value of Xiejianjianye was negative.