After the "Polysilicon Industry Access Requirements" was promulgated for half a year, on June 7th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the "Polysilicon Industry Access Application Report." For a time, the price of polycrystalline silicon famous companies fell sharply. As the most important component of solar photovoltaic, the trend of crystalline silicon is confusing.
Many brokerage companies read it and believe that the release of the “Polysilicon Industry Access Report†means that the tightening policy of China's polysilicon industry has officially come to an end. Only the polysilicon price, which accounts for the highest proportion of PV module costs, will return to low levels. Support the higher cost photovoltaic market.
According to informed sources, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has been brewing this document for a long time. Due to the rapid expansion of the international solar photovoltaic power generation market in recent years, polysilicon prices in the upper reaches of the industry have accelerated. In 2005, the price of polysilicon was 30 US dollars per kilogram. In 2008, the highest price had reached 500 US dollars per kilogram. A large number of domestic polysilicon manufacturers have invested heavily in new construction projects, leading the government to warn the industry in 2009 of overcapacity.
In this context, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Environmental Protection jointly issued the "Polysilicon Industry Access Requirements" in January this year, which stipulates that the minimum capital ratio of investment in new construction and reconstruction projects shall not be less than 30%, and solar grade polysilicon projects shall be The scale must be greater than 3,000 tons/year, and strict regulations should be made on resource conditions and energy consumption.
Behind the rapid development of China's solar photovoltaic industry, there is a grim reality that the dependence of raw materials on imports, lack of core equipment technologies, and the major export of products “three heads outâ€. The situation of polysilicon manufacturing companies in China is not optimistic: On the one hand, global solar PV module shipments continue to decline, foreign subsidies are sluggish, many small and medium-sized PV companies in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are experiencing the pain of overseas returns; on the other hand, the world's largest solar energy manufacturers - FirstSolar, the United States, U-turn to another material of photovoltaic components - thin film battery trend is obvious, in 2010, the company with thin-film batteries in one fell swoop to the global top three components industry.
Photovoltaic module crystal silicon seems to come to a crossroads - to "silicon" or to "film"?
"The era of eliminating crystalline silicon has come!"
“The position of silicon as a solar photovoltaic subject is obviously impossible.†Gan Zixuan, a professor at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a professor of physics at Peking University, said that China’s silicon development should indeed be considered calmly today. “It is estimated that after 4 to 5 years, there will be some New photovoltaic raw materials will replace existing raw materials, and then these alternative products will have lower costs, so innovation is very important."
“The era of eliminating crystalline silicon has come!†Liu Yonghua, chief editor of the Global Solar Annual Report and chief editor of SunEnergy magazine, said that with the nuclear crisis in Japan, European countries such as Germany have closed several nuclear power plants, and solar energy has saved the world. The hope is again amplified, and the key to overcoming this problem in the future is whether human beings can develop relevant technologies to crack the high pollution and high energy consumption difficulties and hindrances faced by crystalline silicon of PV modules, which means the era of solar energy technology transformation. Already coming.
Counsellor Lu Xianxi of the Chinese Delegation to the WTO commented on the weakness of China's PV companies: “An important weakness of Chinese PV companies is the lack of technology. This is a problem for the enterprises themselves. Their competition in the European market depends mainly on price and cost advantages, and they lack core technologies. Advantages: The product basically belongs to 'I have people' instead of 'I have no people'.'
On April 1, Yangzhou Tianhua Optoelectronics Technology Co., Ltd. encountered the most serious April Fool's Day event in the crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry. The company sent two containers of solar modules to Italy on schedule. Unexpectedly, it received The other party pressed the price notice and threatened with the return. The other party put forward some reasons that are completely inconsistent with business logic. The real reason behind this is that European countries have successively lowered their subsidies at the beginning of the year, and the application market profits have been forced to compress. Local applicators have no money to earn, and they have to conduct upstream market pressure transmission. .
It is understood that not only has the company been so embarrassed, but from March to May, many suppliers including China, the United States and India have encountered similar problems in the European market.
In an analysis report on May 10, the UK IMS analysis agency pointed out that in the first quarter of this year, the global shipment of crystalline silicon for solar modules has declined for the first time after two years of continuous growth, a year-on-year drop of 10%, and module prices have also begun to decline rapidly. . The agency analyst Sam Wilkinson described the impact of the decline in sales and prices on the industry: "Dealers have massively hoarded components, reaching more than 1 billion watts, and now only have price cuts."
Polysilicon's excess production capacity is accompanied by high pollution and high energy consumption of crystalline silicon. In September 2009, the State Council called for the suppression of overcapacity in the six major industries, including the polysilicon industry and wind power equipment. “In fact, the country’s goal of developing new solar energy sources has not changed, but it is only advocating the development of truly environmentally friendly, low-energy-consumption solar technologies.†Gan Zixuan said that polysilicon needs to be used at a high temperature of 1,100 degrees Celsius in the refining process, and it consumes a lot during the production process. Energy, there are two major physical drawbacks: First, silicon absorbs photon transitions are indirect transitions, natural efficiency can not be high, the use of technology to improve efficiency, will generate a lot of heat; Second, silicon in the production process, will have serious environmental pollution Energy consumption, "The mainstream of silicon as a photovoltaic is certainly immature."
The new trend of “film†in China’s photovoltaic industry “silicon has reached the next intersection.†During the drafting of the “Global Solar Energy Industry Reportâ€, Liu Xiaohua compared the development of crystalline silicon in the photovoltaic industry with that of television in the current year and found that it led to the market. The fundamental reason for the re-division of shares is not market competition factors such as profit margins, but technological revolutionary breakthroughs.
In terms of TV development, CRT was once considered an irreplaceable video display product, but with the upgrading of technology, it has been gradually replaced by higher-end display technologies such as LCD, LED, and PDP. It is precisely because this revolutionary technological breakthrough has led to the shift of industrial ownership, so that the relationship between supply and demand has been redefined, and the market structure has been divided again.
"For the photovoltaic industry, it faces the same problems." Liu Yuhua said that the financial crisis in 2008 brought pressure on the market to the entire industry, triggering an unanticipated technological innovation - polysilicon purification technology. It has caused the price of crystalline silicon modules to continue to decline, and the cost of photovoltaic power generation has gradually approached free marketization. However, due to technical barriers, supply and demand, policy factors, and other reasons, the price index of the raw material market, polysilicon, has been greatly turbulent.
Liu Yuhua also found that the dependence on the government also makes the development of the photovoltaic industry like a tightrope, and it is difficult to form a free market. In the photovoltaic industry dominated by crystalline silicon, entrepreneurs are always complaining about too little state subsidies.
"To achieve transcendence, we should focus our investment on science and technology innovation in subsidizing the industry." Liu Yuhua said that, in particular, it is up to the government to establish projects and invest in the development of a group of strategic science and technology projects to change the domestic industry in the global industrial chain. Location in the distribution. Today, when the global market is at a low point, it is the best time for the industry chain.
Lead crystalline silicon, which is the main material for photovoltaic power generation, will be exposed to risk after 150 years of human development?
On May 10, FirstSolar signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with China Power International New Energy Holdings Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Power New Energy Development Co., Ltd., and the two parties will jointly develop solar photovoltaics in China and the United States and other international markets. project.
This cooperation was interpreted by the industry as a new trend in the “film†of China's photovoltaic industry.
One of the most attractive areas for alternative energy sources is thin-film solar cell technology. In April of this year, GE announced that it will spend US$600 million to build a large-scale thin film solar cell module factory to become a major competitor in the solar energy industry. This is GE's once again extending its reach in the field of renewable energy.
Amorphous silicon thin film was successfully developed in the mid-1970s. Its production reached its climax in the 1980s. At that time, it accounted for about 20% of the total solar cells in the world. However, the conversion efficiency of amorphous silicon solar cells was lower than that of crystalline silicon solar cells. The reason is that the pace of its development has gradually slowed down. Since then, research in the international academic community on thin-film technology has not been accepted. In addition to silicon-based amorphous silicon thin films, thin film batteries based on cadmium sulfide and gallium arsenide have been gradually developed. Copper-indium-gallium-selenium-selenide (CIGS), which belongs to the thin-film battery, has the advantages of low cost, low energy consumption, small pollution, no attenuation, and good low-light performance. The average conversion efficiency can reach 12%. In the past two years, many industries have been attracted. People's attention.
In order to reduce costs and protect the environment, the demand for solar film technology is rapidly increasing. The production of polysilicon requires more energy, and the energy recovery period is as long as seven years; the silicon material used in amorphous silicon films is less than the one required for polysilicon, and the energy recovery period only takes 1.5 years, whether it is damage to the environment or Pollutant emissions are in line with national energy conservation and environmental protection requirements.
Copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) is internationally known as "the next generation of very promising new thin-film solar cells." China's first CIGS thin-film solar collector tube was unveiled at the 6th Asian Solar PV Industry Exhibition on May 5th. “The application of CIGS thin-film solar cells is the direction for the exploration and development of China's solar energy industry.†Gan Zixuan said that the appearance of thin-film solar technology in China marks the beginning of the industrialization of China’s new solar cell products with independent intellectual property rights. The journey is a new bright spot in the development of China's photovoltaic industry.
However, solar photovoltaic exploration is far from over. The industry began to worry about the large-scale production of CIGS thin-film batteries. Sun Yun, a professor at the School of Information Technology, Nankai University, has undertaken research projects on silicon-based thin films and CIGS. She said that from a research perspective, the ideal conversion efficiency of CIGS thin-film batteries can reach 20.3%, and the module conversion efficiency can reach 15.7%, but raw materials are less, and it is more difficult to form an industry. The production process of CIGS thin-film battery and silicon-based thin film has some differences, that is, mechanical scribing, compound semiconductor and intermediate transition layer are different, and the middle absorption layer can easily cause problems such as element mismatch, which is the bottleneck of the large-scale production of CIGS thin film battery.
Whether there will be a diversified pattern Chinese Academy of Sciences academician Hao Junhao believes that the current global has developed to the third generation of photovoltaic technology, the first generation of crystalline silicon photovoltaic technology, the second generation of thin film solar cells, the third generation is including dye sensitized batteries and Organic battery "new concept" photovoltaic technology. The first two generations of technology are relatively mature, and the road to industrialization is also considerable. Although the third-generation technology is relatively green, the marketization prospect is not yet clear. The future photovoltaic cell market should be a diversified pattern of coexistence of three generations of technologies.
While the solar industry is facing a grey outlook and is unable to move quickly, amorphous silicon thin-film batteries seem to open the door for a diversified energy application landscape. In fact, this door has been at the tip of one of the icebergs nearly half a century ago. In 1974, scientists at RCA Laboratories in the United States made the world's first amorphous silicon solar cell available for practical use, which opened a new chapter in the use of solar energy by humans.
After nearly two decades of efforts, the theoretical, technological, and practical applications of amorphous silicon solar cells have made significant progress and have become an important competitor in the photovoltaic industry.
"In the long run, solar energy needs a revolution," said Ma Xuelu, deputy director of the China Association for Promoting Low-carbon Economic Development. Our current PV technology has achieved the same cost as conventional coal-fired electricity within 10 years. The price of solar power in the future will be even cheaper than burning fossil fuels. This means that a "revolution" of energy deployment is coming soon.
Many brokerage companies read it and believe that the release of the “Polysilicon Industry Access Report†means that the tightening policy of China's polysilicon industry has officially come to an end. Only the polysilicon price, which accounts for the highest proportion of PV module costs, will return to low levels. Support the higher cost photovoltaic market.
According to informed sources, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has been brewing this document for a long time. Due to the rapid expansion of the international solar photovoltaic power generation market in recent years, polysilicon prices in the upper reaches of the industry have accelerated. In 2005, the price of polysilicon was 30 US dollars per kilogram. In 2008, the highest price had reached 500 US dollars per kilogram. A large number of domestic polysilicon manufacturers have invested heavily in new construction projects, leading the government to warn the industry in 2009 of overcapacity.
In this context, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Environmental Protection jointly issued the "Polysilicon Industry Access Requirements" in January this year, which stipulates that the minimum capital ratio of investment in new construction and reconstruction projects shall not be less than 30%, and solar grade polysilicon projects shall be The scale must be greater than 3,000 tons/year, and strict regulations should be made on resource conditions and energy consumption.
Behind the rapid development of China's solar photovoltaic industry, there is a grim reality that the dependence of raw materials on imports, lack of core equipment technologies, and the major export of products “three heads outâ€. The situation of polysilicon manufacturing companies in China is not optimistic: On the one hand, global solar PV module shipments continue to decline, foreign subsidies are sluggish, many small and medium-sized PV companies in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are experiencing the pain of overseas returns; on the other hand, the world's largest solar energy manufacturers - FirstSolar, the United States, U-turn to another material of photovoltaic components - thin film battery trend is obvious, in 2010, the company with thin-film batteries in one fell swoop to the global top three components industry.
Photovoltaic module crystal silicon seems to come to a crossroads - to "silicon" or to "film"?
"The era of eliminating crystalline silicon has come!"
“The position of silicon as a solar photovoltaic subject is obviously impossible.†Gan Zixuan, a professor at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a professor of physics at Peking University, said that China’s silicon development should indeed be considered calmly today. “It is estimated that after 4 to 5 years, there will be some New photovoltaic raw materials will replace existing raw materials, and then these alternative products will have lower costs, so innovation is very important."
“The era of eliminating crystalline silicon has come!†Liu Yonghua, chief editor of the Global Solar Annual Report and chief editor of SunEnergy magazine, said that with the nuclear crisis in Japan, European countries such as Germany have closed several nuclear power plants, and solar energy has saved the world. The hope is again amplified, and the key to overcoming this problem in the future is whether human beings can develop relevant technologies to crack the high pollution and high energy consumption difficulties and hindrances faced by crystalline silicon of PV modules, which means the era of solar energy technology transformation. Already coming.
Counsellor Lu Xianxi of the Chinese Delegation to the WTO commented on the weakness of China's PV companies: “An important weakness of Chinese PV companies is the lack of technology. This is a problem for the enterprises themselves. Their competition in the European market depends mainly on price and cost advantages, and they lack core technologies. Advantages: The product basically belongs to 'I have people' instead of 'I have no people'.'
On April 1, Yangzhou Tianhua Optoelectronics Technology Co., Ltd. encountered the most serious April Fool's Day event in the crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry. The company sent two containers of solar modules to Italy on schedule. Unexpectedly, it received The other party pressed the price notice and threatened with the return. The other party put forward some reasons that are completely inconsistent with business logic. The real reason behind this is that European countries have successively lowered their subsidies at the beginning of the year, and the application market profits have been forced to compress. Local applicators have no money to earn, and they have to conduct upstream market pressure transmission. .
It is understood that not only has the company been so embarrassed, but from March to May, many suppliers including China, the United States and India have encountered similar problems in the European market.
In an analysis report on May 10, the UK IMS analysis agency pointed out that in the first quarter of this year, the global shipment of crystalline silicon for solar modules has declined for the first time after two years of continuous growth, a year-on-year drop of 10%, and module prices have also begun to decline rapidly. . The agency analyst Sam Wilkinson described the impact of the decline in sales and prices on the industry: "Dealers have massively hoarded components, reaching more than 1 billion watts, and now only have price cuts."
Polysilicon's excess production capacity is accompanied by high pollution and high energy consumption of crystalline silicon. In September 2009, the State Council called for the suppression of overcapacity in the six major industries, including the polysilicon industry and wind power equipment. “In fact, the country’s goal of developing new solar energy sources has not changed, but it is only advocating the development of truly environmentally friendly, low-energy-consumption solar technologies.†Gan Zixuan said that polysilicon needs to be used at a high temperature of 1,100 degrees Celsius in the refining process, and it consumes a lot during the production process. Energy, there are two major physical drawbacks: First, silicon absorbs photon transitions are indirect transitions, natural efficiency can not be high, the use of technology to improve efficiency, will generate a lot of heat; Second, silicon in the production process, will have serious environmental pollution Energy consumption, "The mainstream of silicon as a photovoltaic is certainly immature."
The new trend of “film†in China’s photovoltaic industry “silicon has reached the next intersection.†During the drafting of the “Global Solar Energy Industry Reportâ€, Liu Xiaohua compared the development of crystalline silicon in the photovoltaic industry with that of television in the current year and found that it led to the market. The fundamental reason for the re-division of shares is not market competition factors such as profit margins, but technological revolutionary breakthroughs.
In terms of TV development, CRT was once considered an irreplaceable video display product, but with the upgrading of technology, it has been gradually replaced by higher-end display technologies such as LCD, LED, and PDP. It is precisely because this revolutionary technological breakthrough has led to the shift of industrial ownership, so that the relationship between supply and demand has been redefined, and the market structure has been divided again.
"For the photovoltaic industry, it faces the same problems." Liu Yuhua said that the financial crisis in 2008 brought pressure on the market to the entire industry, triggering an unanticipated technological innovation - polysilicon purification technology. It has caused the price of crystalline silicon modules to continue to decline, and the cost of photovoltaic power generation has gradually approached free marketization. However, due to technical barriers, supply and demand, policy factors, and other reasons, the price index of the raw material market, polysilicon, has been greatly turbulent.
Liu Yuhua also found that the dependence on the government also makes the development of the photovoltaic industry like a tightrope, and it is difficult to form a free market. In the photovoltaic industry dominated by crystalline silicon, entrepreneurs are always complaining about too little state subsidies.
"To achieve transcendence, we should focus our investment on science and technology innovation in subsidizing the industry." Liu Yuhua said that, in particular, it is up to the government to establish projects and invest in the development of a group of strategic science and technology projects to change the domestic industry in the global industrial chain. Location in the distribution. Today, when the global market is at a low point, it is the best time for the industry chain.
Lead crystalline silicon, which is the main material for photovoltaic power generation, will be exposed to risk after 150 years of human development?
On May 10, FirstSolar signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with China Power International New Energy Holdings Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Power New Energy Development Co., Ltd., and the two parties will jointly develop solar photovoltaics in China and the United States and other international markets. project.
This cooperation was interpreted by the industry as a new trend in the “film†of China's photovoltaic industry.
One of the most attractive areas for alternative energy sources is thin-film solar cell technology. In April of this year, GE announced that it will spend US$600 million to build a large-scale thin film solar cell module factory to become a major competitor in the solar energy industry. This is GE's once again extending its reach in the field of renewable energy.
Amorphous silicon thin film was successfully developed in the mid-1970s. Its production reached its climax in the 1980s. At that time, it accounted for about 20% of the total solar cells in the world. However, the conversion efficiency of amorphous silicon solar cells was lower than that of crystalline silicon solar cells. The reason is that the pace of its development has gradually slowed down. Since then, research in the international academic community on thin-film technology has not been accepted. In addition to silicon-based amorphous silicon thin films, thin film batteries based on cadmium sulfide and gallium arsenide have been gradually developed. Copper-indium-gallium-selenium-selenide (CIGS), which belongs to the thin-film battery, has the advantages of low cost, low energy consumption, small pollution, no attenuation, and good low-light performance. The average conversion efficiency can reach 12%. In the past two years, many industries have been attracted. People's attention.
In order to reduce costs and protect the environment, the demand for solar film technology is rapidly increasing. The production of polysilicon requires more energy, and the energy recovery period is as long as seven years; the silicon material used in amorphous silicon films is less than the one required for polysilicon, and the energy recovery period only takes 1.5 years, whether it is damage to the environment or Pollutant emissions are in line with national energy conservation and environmental protection requirements.
Copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) is internationally known as "the next generation of very promising new thin-film solar cells." China's first CIGS thin-film solar collector tube was unveiled at the 6th Asian Solar PV Industry Exhibition on May 5th. “The application of CIGS thin-film solar cells is the direction for the exploration and development of China's solar energy industry.†Gan Zixuan said that the appearance of thin-film solar technology in China marks the beginning of the industrialization of China’s new solar cell products with independent intellectual property rights. The journey is a new bright spot in the development of China's photovoltaic industry.
However, solar photovoltaic exploration is far from over. The industry began to worry about the large-scale production of CIGS thin-film batteries. Sun Yun, a professor at the School of Information Technology, Nankai University, has undertaken research projects on silicon-based thin films and CIGS. She said that from a research perspective, the ideal conversion efficiency of CIGS thin-film batteries can reach 20.3%, and the module conversion efficiency can reach 15.7%, but raw materials are less, and it is more difficult to form an industry. The production process of CIGS thin-film battery and silicon-based thin film has some differences, that is, mechanical scribing, compound semiconductor and intermediate transition layer are different, and the middle absorption layer can easily cause problems such as element mismatch, which is the bottleneck of the large-scale production of CIGS thin film battery.
Whether there will be a diversified pattern Chinese Academy of Sciences academician Hao Junhao believes that the current global has developed to the third generation of photovoltaic technology, the first generation of crystalline silicon photovoltaic technology, the second generation of thin film solar cells, the third generation is including dye sensitized batteries and Organic battery "new concept" photovoltaic technology. The first two generations of technology are relatively mature, and the road to industrialization is also considerable. Although the third-generation technology is relatively green, the marketization prospect is not yet clear. The future photovoltaic cell market should be a diversified pattern of coexistence of three generations of technologies.
While the solar industry is facing a grey outlook and is unable to move quickly, amorphous silicon thin-film batteries seem to open the door for a diversified energy application landscape. In fact, this door has been at the tip of one of the icebergs nearly half a century ago. In 1974, scientists at RCA Laboratories in the United States made the world's first amorphous silicon solar cell available for practical use, which opened a new chapter in the use of solar energy by humans.
After nearly two decades of efforts, the theoretical, technological, and practical applications of amorphous silicon solar cells have made significant progress and have become an important competitor in the photovoltaic industry.
"In the long run, solar energy needs a revolution," said Ma Xuelu, deputy director of the China Association for Promoting Low-carbon Economic Development. Our current PV technology has achieved the same cost as conventional coal-fired electricity within 10 years. The price of solar power in the future will be even cheaper than burning fossil fuels. This means that a "revolution" of energy deployment is coming soon.
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