At the Blockchain Media Social Responsibility Forum on August 5, mainstream economist Xiang Songzuo put forward "three 99%", which are: "99% of people who talk about blockchain don't know the district. What is a block chain; 99% of companies engaged in block chain do not know what business they do; 99% of projects in the name of block chain are scammers." After the meeting, a participant told him that 99% said too little It should be 99.99%.
This is actually not the first time Xiang Songzuo mentioned blockchain. In July of this year, Xiang Songzuo also expressed the view that "gold and bitcoin are speculative products, not safe-haven products, this is an illusion" . In addition, in his audio class on currency and finance on Himalaya FM, one of the sections is titled "The Essence of Bitcoin Is No Different from Monkey Tickets", but this section has not been updated yet. In response to Babbitt’s inquiry, Xiang Songzuo said: “Bitcoin is undoubtedly a very important invention, which provides a model for future currency innovation. Now central banks around the world are also discussing legal digital currencies, but This is completely different from Bitcoin itself being able to become a global currency."
Xiang Songzuo believes: "Will Bitcoin replace the sovereign currency of some countries and become a global hard currency as people have imagined? Some people even say that it is more valuable than gold, which I think is impossible. Bitcoin no matter what No matter how it develops, it is impossible to replace the currency of a sovereign country. Because the currency of a sovereign country involves too many factors, in addition to the problem of seigniorage, there is also a problem of monetary policy. No country will give its monetary policy to A decentralized mining mechanism is unimaginable. It is people’s luxury or fantasy to think that Bitcoin will replace the currency of sovereign countries.
The second Bitcoin as a valuable asset, people are willing to buy and hype it, just as there are many things that may be hyped in this world. Monkey tickets, for people like me who don’t like stamps, are worthless, and you don’t have to give them to me. However, some people like monkey tickets very much, and they are very valuable in their minds. This kind of thing happens every day, fried Pu'er tea, fried mahogany, fried antiques, anything can be fried. Bitcoin is similar in meaning to this. There are indeed a group of people all over the world who are crazy about Bitcoin. They think how much Bitcoin is. Valuable, they have also designed a lot of theories for themselves, and there is no reason to say that the future of finance does have to be digital. In this sense, Bitcoin provides an important contribution, but it does not mean that Bitcoin itself will become the universal currency of the world. This is an exaggeration. "
As a well-known macroeconomist and director and deputy director of the Institute of International Monetary Studies at Renmin University of China, Xiang Songzuo’s views cannot be ignored. But why did he make such a negative judgment? Reporter Babbitt and Xiang Songzuo had an in-depth exchange. He said: “Of course no one denies that blockchain is a potentially promising technology. What I condemn is based on two levels. One is open and deliberate fraud under the banner of new technology. The other is chasing the trend. Hype bubble."
Indeed, in 2017, along with the madness of ico, many air coin and MLM coin projects broke out. It is not uncommon for blockchain concept hype, project teams, and proxy investment to run away. According to reports, there are more than 3,000 virtual currency MLM platforms based on the concept of blockchain, and the amount of crime involved is large.
How to distinguish between financial innovation and financial fraud guided by new technologies? Xiang Songzuo thinks it's very simple, no need to know technology, common sense is enough. He said: "Whether the new technology is applied in the financial field or in other commercial fields, it must create real value for users. In addition, its source of funds must be legal and compliant. Any project promises high amounts. You must be very vigilant about the return. Just as the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission Guo Shuqing said, if you say 5% return, you may be able to believe it. If you say 8% return, you must consider it in your heart. If you say 10% return, basically There is a problem. If you say tens of percent of the return, or even promise to double in half a year or a year, then it must be a scam. Because this goes against common sense, ordinary people do not need to understand this technology to identify financial fraud. One thing to remember is whether it promises you a high return. Because of the most basic principle, no project or no company can tell you with certainty that it can earn 30% or 5% a year. Ten returns, which violates basic economic laws. Secondly, it’s like a pyramid scheme, some crazy gatherings, and some celebrities are invited to perform, making it crazy, crazy, basically a scam, because A real value-creating and tangible project does not need to engage in this kind of thing at all. Issuance of coins under the name of the blockchain and various theoretical packages are actually a deceptive reason."
In addition to the financial fraud of changing the soup and not changing the medicine, Xiang Songzuo's second objection is the industry's bubble-making behavior. He said: "It may not be a scam. Indeed, many people want to invest in the blockchain and think this is a trend. China What kind of outlet people like to create the most, many people think that this is a golden opportunity to make money. In fact, quite a few people have not figured out what the blockchain is at all. Their idea is that I can’t miss the outlet or the opportunity. This It may be an inevitable phenomenon after the birth of new technology. But at the same time, it also reflects that there are too few really good projects in China, reflects that there are not many real innovations in the Chinese economy, and reflects the social atmosphere of the public seeking to make quick money. "
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