On October 24th, Xiaomi TV officially announced that it adjusted the price of Xiaomi TV 4A 32-inch to RMB 999, which was a straight drop of 200 yuan compared with the listing price. The price also refreshed the lowest price for the brand's 32-inch color TV. In this regard, Daping Jun estimates that in the fourth quarter of 2017, the new competition cycle of large-screen liquid crystal display products with price as the main mode will start soon. Who will be the beneficiary of this new round of price wars?
What drives the decline in LCD prices
Recently, Dapingjun noticed the fact that the price of LCD panels has dropped, and this has changed from fine-tuning in May-June this year to diving. According to the latest panel price data released by the International Panel Analysis and Statistics Institute IHS in October, panel prices remained declining in October, especially 40 inches and 43 inches, with the highest drop rate reaching 7%. The more important data is that the prices of large-size panels such as the 55-inch and 65-inch models are even lower than the lowest prices in the second quarter of last year.
In the second quarter of 2016, the large-size LCD TVs represented by 55 inches set the lowest prices in history. Since then, a year-long price increase has been performed. So far, the terminal prices of such products have also remained relatively high. The breakthrough in the price of such liquid crystal panels has provided an unprecedented "space" for the future decline in terminal prices.
In one year's time, the price of LCD products took a roller coaster ride. Readers must want to ask Big Pingjun. Why is this?
Before June 2016, large-size liquid crystal display products maintained rapid growth for three consecutive years. This makes the consumption of the area of ​​the LCD panel area significantly increased even if the consumers who buy TV do not increase. Samsung and other South Korean companies, in order to import more OLED production capacity, part of the suspension of the 5-7 generation LCD panel line. The latter caused a certain amount of de-capacity in the LCD panel market. More importantly, during the entire year of 2016, only Taiwan's medium-capacity 8.6-generation line was put into production—the new line was put into production vacuum period, which exacerbated the tight market supply. “The increase in demand for large-scale products, capacity reduction, and reduction in new line production.†These changes coincided with 2016's global color TV sales reaching a record high for several years. Four major factors contributed to a 12-month price increase cycle for LCD panels.
In this regard, what Big Pingjun most wanted to say is: The price increase started last year in the LCD panel was promoted by the “four†positive factors – and it is possible to gather these four factors at the same time, which is obviously a small probability event.
For example, since 2017, the global TV market has changed from a growth recovery to a decline. During the 11th period, the total sales volume of the domestic color TV market decreased by 15.6% year-on-year, with sales of only 11.8 billion yuan. Under the influence of high prices, the process of large-size color TV products is also slowing down (at the same time, before the 10.5 line was put into production, it is difficult for the current production line to provide more economical cutting of 55-inch or more products). Korean companies' "discontinued production of the old line has also come to an end."
More importantly, the new production capacity of the display panel has "followed". For example, in 2017, the two 8.5-generation lines of BOE and Huike will ramp up in volume; the BOE 10.5 generation line in 2018 and the two new 8.6-generation lines in China Electronics will enter volume production. This undoubtedly changed the expectations of the entire market.
On the other hand, Mr. Daping is particularly grateful for the "historical contribution" of mobile OLED screen products - the rapid increase in investment in mobile OLED screens began in 2016. The launch of a series of tens of billions of investment projects will enable the OLED production capacity of the 6th generation mobile phones to inevitably erupt from the end of 2017 to the beginning of 2019. However, the mobile phone display market is already very crowded, and enough liquid crystal production capacity has caused the price of the product to drop further.
The oversupply of LCD mobile phone screens, the lackluster growth in the total sales volume of the mobile phone market, and the inability of mobile phone screens to be large after 18:9 full screen. In this context, the newly added OLED production capacity will inevitably intensify competition in the mobile phone display market. As one of the way out, more high-generation LCD lines, such as the 6-generation line converting LCD monitors or LCD TV panels, are a good choice.
In other words, Daping Jun believes that for every one-plus-point increase in the production capacity of OLED handsets, the LCD TV handset panel display capacity will be “squeezed†by nearly one point to TV sets and computers. For example, the price adjustment conditions of Xiaomi's 32-inch LCD TVs are related to the 6-generation LCD cable that is most suitable for cutting 32-inch planes, and the 32-inch and 65-inch capacity of the 8.5-generation line.
However, even if we do not consider such a complicated industrial change relationship, we can only conclude from the market's ability to adjust adversely, and consumers can come to the conclusion that after the LCD panel price is high, it must be low. It's just that the bottom is a bit fast. In the fourth quarter of 2017, dividends can already be shared.
Panel prices fall, color TV prices are not reduced
Of course, as the most basic economic law, Daping Jun knows well that the decline in prices of upstream panels does not mean that downstream TV companies will cut their prices. For example, this round of panel prices began to decline from June, while the color TV products have loosened prices in September. --why? Because the company's goals are profitable.
However, there is a special situation in the Chinese color TV market in 2017: this is the shrinking of LeTV as well as the redistribution of Internet brand segment. Big Pingjun has already noticed that many media reported the news that Millet and Storm TV profited from the shrinking of LeTV.
In fact, the beneficiaries of this market change are not just millet and storms. Including many traditional TV brands have benefited from it - the concentrated market performance is the major adjustment of the market share of network operators. However, this adjustment process is not "half-divided". That is, some people benefit more significantly: For example, LeTV as its main focus on Internet culture and high-priced and low-priced, which makes the division of LeTV shrink the cake, the concept of Internet brands and high-end image brands in traditional TV will benefit more.
On the other hand, despite the sluggish TV market in 2017, Philips and Sharp still insisted on "radical" gameplay. In particular, the large-scale price adjustment of Sharp products has doubled the size of the market. This change will also stir up other brands' "envy and hate."
Therefore, Daping Jun has the following conclusions: Faced with the “reshuffle of the weak†in the color TV market, once the cost space allows the TV industry to adopt a “more aggressive strategyâ€, many brands will not “be willing†to succumb to the status quo. The theoretical basis for this conclusion is that only a balanced competition can promote price stability; a combination of unbalanced competition (Levi's shrinking and Sharp's heightening) and cost reduction can only bring about a price war.
In other words, the decline in product prices represented by Xiaomi reflects not only the “cost pattern†of LCD TV product prices in the upper reaches of the color TV industry, but also reflects the active correction of color TV brand expectations. In the first half of 2017, some brands shrank and some brands expanded. The formation of "unbalanced development."
Therefore, Daping Jun said, “The price of color TVs actually went to September-December of 2016. In the four months, there was an overall price increase. More time was spent on the state that you did not cut prices from people.†. For example, in the first half of 2017, the king of prices was Sharp. In the second half of the year, Xiaomi began to be active and active. After that, there are others who, though unable to predict, will never be "backless."
Moreover, this phenomenon is applicable not only to color TVs but also to mobile phone displays, computer displays, and commercial LCD displays. For the display industry, simply relying on price increases and gaining benefits is not long-lasting. The future of the display industry is still focused on technological innovation.
In this regard, mobile phones have blossomed on the full screen - after all, this is just a new cutting distribution scheme, not a change in technology level. There will be no pressure on the supply side for capacity, yield, and cost. And if the mobile phone product is fully popular, it can at least add 12.5% ​​of the production capacity. Computers and other products, desktop display continues to increase, 24K surface 2K has become a new trend. The larger size has effectively eased the overcapacity pressure of panel companies.
TV and large-size commercial display, 65-inch products in 2017 will grow more than 50%; 55 inches continue to maintain high-speed increase; 70 +-inch also entered the popular consumer stage, production and sales is expected to double. These changes are conducive to digestion of market capacity. However, cutting off 65 inches is not economical for the current main 8.5 generation line. So three 65, and six 32-inch products 8.5 generation line mixed; previous 32-inch main line - 6th generation line, cutting two 65-inch units, two ways will become the only "economic" before the 10.5 line production Supply the 65-inch" unit. (What Daping Jun needs to point out is that 65-inch 8.5-generation non-hybrid glass-based board waste is currently used, which actually leads to this production method can only "sell more and more".
Of course, on the large-size display, the LCD industry has nirvana, which is 8K. Using 8K new standard to raise the selling price is a better choice of market. In this regard, color TV companies and panel companies have absolutely the same interests. Moreover, from the perspective of the technical difficulty and yield of 65-inch 8K products, this technology will not "increase the initial cost of the product."
In summary, Daping Jun believes that the price war is only a "characteristic" of the LCD TV industry and even the entire liquid crystal display industry in the short term; the other two long-term main themes "bigger screen, higher resolution" will continue to work hard. . Upstream and downstream manufacturers value the "future opportunities" that the latter two can bring. Of course, the popularization of new technologies cannot be separated from the progress of new production capacity and cost technologies. (If the BOE's 10.5 generation line theory will be put into production next year, the 65-inch cutting efficiency will exceed 90%; currently, the 65-inch non-hybrid 65-inch line of the 8.5-generation line will have an efficiency of only 60%. In addition, the 58-inch line of the 8.6-generation line will become another. Large-size choices - Will this be another peak in the new round of price wars?)
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