After this year's CES show, many people in the industry are talking about VR's urgent need for their own killer applications, otherwise they will face the risk of extinction. As Ian Bell, president of the Digital Trends website, recently wrote in the article, “Technology is always on the edge of the cliff. If they don’t increase their value, consumers will forget it. VR is this. Now people think it's cool, but if no one comes forward to come up with something meaningful for it, then people will abandon it.â€
To some extent, VR really needs to be improved in all aspects before it is possible to really gain popularity. But if there is no so-called "realistic significance," does VR really only have to wait for death?
I believe that VR does not require killer applications to succeed, because VR itself is a killer application, it is a medium.
Some people think that VR will repeat the mistakes of 3D TV because they do not understand the difference between features and media. 3D is a feature of television. There is no essential difference between 3D TV and ordinary TV. TV is a medium because it is independent of other media, such as books. It is logically impossible to tell VR to prove itself to be successful as if you need to write a good book to make the medium of the book a success.
The reason why books can be a successful medium is because it provides people with the ability to communicate ideas through writing. From this perspective, VR is no different, except that it communicates through ideas rather than words. The basic force for people to communicate with each other through experience is the reason why VR will eventually become popular.
Therefore, we can say that the success of VR does not depend on one kind of content, but more on a matter of time. Then one might ask how long does it take for it to be truly popular among the general public? In other words, how long does it take for content developers to understand how to use it to communicate ideas, while providing enough comfort and cheapness?
When will the VR revolution detonate?
The author believes that there are three pillars of VR content: social networking platform, narrative experience, and games. The three complement each other and will promote the popularity of VR. Increasing social platforms will drive the need to play games among them; narration experiences can have social elements that drive social development; games can also incorporate narrative and social elements.
Since the establishment of Oculus, the number of VR users has doubled each year. If this trend continues, it will have 100 million users in 4-5 years. By then, VR will be a platform that is large enough and mature enough, and the moment of vigorous development will come. To get 1 billion users, you must wait at least 4-5 years. At that time, VR is regarded as the mainstream computing platform. In other words, within 10 years, VR should have 1 billion users.
Of course, this is only a speculation. If the experience is not good enough, or the hardware is not approachable, the user may not grow so fast. However, as long as the hardware is still in production, the number of VR users will always continue to grow.
While the growth of the consumer market, VR applications in the enterprise market may have greater potential, such as health, education, medicine and construction. For example, VR has proven itself in the treatment of social anxiety/fear cognitive behavioral therapy. As long as several big tech giants are still firmly supporting VR, the future situation will surely become better and better.
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