After the collective pullback of Baima stocks, the stock market linkage recurred again in the steel industry. On November 30, the rebar main 1805 contract hit an intraday high of 4043 yuan per ton, setting a new high in nearly four years. In fact, after entering the fourth quarter, domestic steel prices began to rebound continuously.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that the rebound in steel prices led by changes in supply and demand has now led the re-entry of funds. Take Masteel (600808.SH) as an example. At the end of September, the number of shares held by Shanghai Stock Exchange was 9.34 million shares, and by the end of November 29 it had risen to 19.4 million shares.
It should be pointed out that the limited heating season will continue until March 15 next year, during which time it will support steel prices. Only the lower temperature in the north after December will have a certain impact on downstream demand. In contrast, the supply and demand of the southern steel companies will remain relatively stable, and the steel prices will remain high. This part of the listed steel companies will continue to increase their profits in the fourth quarter.
"Demand and supply double kill" falsification
As one of the main investment lines of this year's A-shares, the rise in steel prices has prompted a sharp increase in the earnings effect of steel stocks. However, since September, after the steel price broke the 4000 mark, steel prices began to decline.
At that time, the market expected that in the fourth quarter, under the influence of limited production in the north and work site shutdown, the local market supply and demand would both fall, and the corresponding prices would be difficult to maintain the upward trend.
However, the reality is not the case. On November 30, Zhuo Chuang, an information and steel industry analyst Wang Wenlu, pointed out that starting from November 10, the northern region began a large-scale promotion of limited production and the supply decreased.
One of the most direct manifestations is the operating rate of the company. “Our statistics on the operating rate of 100 small and medium-sized steel enterprises across the country found that the operating rate in November was only over 70%, compared with 80% in October and the highest point in the year was about 92%.†said Lange Ying, an analyst at Lange Steel. .
“Conversely, on the demand side, work stoppages only impose restrictions on the operation of earth and stone work. Concrete watering and frame construction operations are still underway. After the start of production restriction, there was no large-scale weather in the northern areas, so it did not have a serious impact on downstream construction. "Wang said that.
Xu Liying also believes that the steel industry has entered the off-season in November of last year. For example, the steel price fell in the same period last year, but the steel demand performance in November this year is still very good. Among them, the contribution of infrastructure construction is relatively large, and the year-on-year growth rate is expected to reach over 19%.
Lange Steel's data shows that in November this year, the PMI index for the steel circulation industry was 47.9, compared to 46.9 in November last year.
On the one hand, the production of 50% of Hebei in the main producing areas has declined. On the other hand, there has been a slight increase in demand. The expectation of “supply and demand†has quickly been falsified.
Thus, starting in mid-November, the domestic steel prices ended up oscillating and began to rebound continuously. As of November 30, the rebar main 1805 contract has broken the previous high point. In the same period, the Wenhua Thread Index was also close to the previous high point.
"Last week, rebar stocks in Beijing reached the lowest point since 2008, and some of the market's specifications were out of stock," said Xu Liying.
Wang Shulu also said that the current phase of supply and demand imbalances in northern steel, "this week, thread, plate screw and other building materials generally rose more than 300 yuan."
The above-mentioned change in supply and demand relationship is the key to the continuous rise in the spot price of steel products in the near future. At the same time, it also makes funds re-enter the market to do more steel prices.
Such as the thread 1805 contract, on November 29, a one-day Masukura 317,000 hands, but it also includes the impact of the main shift positions.
North Funding Industry Leader
The impact of changes in the fundamentals of the industry during the stock period is not limited to commodity prices, but also to the stock market. Coupled with the recent revival of the White Horse stocks' collective correction, the steel industry has become one of the eye-catching sectors.
Wind data shows that since October 20th, the steel sector has risen by 7.28%, second only to aerospace equipment and gas, which ranks third in the SWS industry classification.
At the same time, the steel stocks have also become the target for Hong Kong-based companies to go northward to buy, and they have also concentrated on leading players such as Baosteel (600019.SH) and Baotou Steel (600010.SH).
Among them, Angang Steel (000898.SZ) was more obvious. On October 20, Shenzhen Stock Exchange held 29.18 million shares, and by November 30 it had risen to 56.3 million shares.
In contrast, the number of Nangang Steel (600282.SH) held by Shanghai Stock Exchange has continued to decline, and the proportion of outstanding shares has dropped to 0.12% as of November 30.
It should be pointed out that there are many factors in the recent rise of steel stocks. First of all, Baima stocks, represented by liquor and household appliances, collectively fell, and the natural selection of funds also had cycle shares with well-established performance and good liquidity.
In addition, from an industry perspective, although the domestic steel price began to fall from September, the average steel price in the fourth quarter is expected to exceed the third quarter, that is, the profit rate of the ton steel continues to increase quarter by quarter.
In other words, the listed steel companies still have some room for growth in the fourth quarter. However, the regional and seasonal consumption characteristics determine that the north-south steel enterprises will have a certain division of profit in the fourth quarter.
“Before, there was a saying that 'northland and northland' would fall. After the shutdown of the north in the fourth quarter, there would be more northern steel in the south market.†Xu Liying said.
From the current North-South steel price difference, the demand in the South is also better than in the North. “At present, Beijing's thread price is RMB 400/ton lower than that of Shandong, RMB 600/ton lower than that of Guangzhou, and the spread can hardly reach this range. Therefore, Shandong tends to transfer goods from Hebei, even if it adds RMB 130 per ton of freight. It is also cost-effective."Wang quoted the introduction.
Therefore, under the condition that prices remain stable, the performance of the southern steel enterprises will undoubtedly be stronger than that of the northern steel enterprises.
“The end of December will be a risk point for the steel market. Lower temperatures will lead to the shutdown of construction sites in the north of the lower reaches, and the pattern of tight supply will be eased.†Wang said that steel products in South China are now close to RMB 5,000. Can prices continue? Upstream is not certain.
In addition, after the supply-side reforms in 2016 and 2017, the difficulty of removing capacity from the steel industry will increase correspondingly next year, and the focus of work may shift to mergers and reorganizations. This trend has already been reflected, for example, after the resumption of trading on November 27 The three steel dawn (002110.SZ) and so on.
Stainless Steel Industrial Pipe
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