The regulatory pressure of the internal combustion engine, together with the technical upgrade of electric systems and batteries, has promoted the growth of demand for pure electric vehicles. Most automakers are introducing new electric models, and new manufacturers without the tradition of internal combustion engines have joined the ranks. In 2016, global sales of pure electric vehicles (excluding hybrid vehicles) increased by nearly 45%.
As pure electric vehicles begin to transform into bestsellers, it is time to understand the trends in technology development. We worked with the automotive benchmarking company A2Mac1 to do a wide-ranging benchmarking analysis of the first and second generation electric vehicles. At the same time, we physically disassemble ten models, which are 2011 Nissan LEAF, 2013 Volkswagen e-up! , 2013 Tesla Model S 60, 2014 Chevrolet Spark, 2014 BMW i3, 2015 Volkswagen e-Golf, 2015 BYD e6, 2017 Nissan LEAF, 2017 Chevrolet Bolt and 2017 Opel Ampera-e.
In the production of pure electric vehicles, the sales of these ten models account for about 40%. In addition to the ten dismantled vehicles, we also analyzed the public information of other vehicles and consulted independent experts in related fields. The results show that pure electric vehicles that can be mass-produced require completely different thinking logic.
Here are five key insights we extracted.
1. Want a high-performance electric car? A native platform must be built.Benchmark vehicle analysis shows that electric vehicles based on native platforms and electric vehicles based on internal combustion engine platforms have significant gaps in cruising range and interior space. The former can optimize the module design of the battery, and the latter needs to adapt the battery to the space on the internal combustion engine platform, thereby limiting the increase in battery energy density.
According to EPA data, the original battery pack can be used in a simple rectangular shape, which doubles the cruising range of electric vehicles, can travel more than 300 kilometers per charge, and travels at an optimal state for nearly 400 kilometers, and the price is not It will rise accordingly. In addition, under the same wheelbase conditions in the same market segment, electric vehicles based on the original platform can obtain more interior space, up to 10% compared to electric vehicles and fuel vehicles developed on the internal combustion engine platform. .
We also disassembled the battery, battery and thermal management system during the benchmarking analysis. We found three different geometry cell designs (cylindrical, square and soft) that exhibit a variety of chemical reactions.
Since each cell design has clear advantages and disadvantages, no one is the absolute winner in the performance of the best-selling electric car. Our analysis found that the energy density of these cell designs increased by more than 30% during the seven years from 2011 to 2018.
We have also found that there are huge differences in the design methods of thermal management. For example, there are four different solutions for battery cooling systems: passive (natural air cooling), active combined power system, active independent battery, active Combined with air conditioning circuits.
We also identified three prototypes for battery heating, the first one being completely absent, the second using the residual heat of the motor, electronics or air conditioning system, and the third being the integration of a dedicated RTD heating device into the battery pack. Some dedicated RTD heating units use the energy of the battery, and only work when the vehicle is charging; others use liquid cooling/heating combined cycle and use different heat sources, such as thermal resistors outside the battery pack. heating equipment.
At present, cylindrical batteries perform best on the market, with the highest energy density, close to 245 Wh/kg. Followed by a soft-pack battery, the energy density is close to 195 Wh/kg, which is a shocking nearly 25% gap. Finally, the square-shell battery has an energy density close to 160 Wh/kg. However, if you look at the net energy density of the battery pack, the battery case and thermal management system help level the score: 132 Wh/kg for cylindrical batteries, 138 Wh/kg for soft pack batteries, and 104 Wh/kg for square-shell batteries.
At present, there is no single trend in technology trends. OEMs still need to invest in these areas at the same time, and get the ideal deal in the cost-effective consideration of battery and thermal management design.
3. The cost-based design (DTC) method has been implemented on electric vehicles.The benchmark model analysis shows that the OEMs who have won the competition in performance and endurance have begun to implement the cost-based design (DTC), especially the powertrain and body-in-white design of electric vehicles. This trend is particularly evident in the second generation of electric vehicles. The cost-based design focuses on the component integration of the powertrain and the intelligent application of lightweight materials in the structural components.
Speaking of the weight of the car, we analyzed the main structural parts of the ten models to estimate their use in aluminum and composites. Among these structural components, some second-generation best-selling electric vehicles use only 5% to 10% of the aluminum weight, which is close to the average level of the internal combustion engine (about 5%). In luxury electric vehicles, aluminum accounts for about 40% of the weight of the car, mainly used to improve acceleration and power performance.
The market share of the best-selling electric vehicles in the field of lightweighting will continue to trend toward internal combustion engines, mainly from the following three reasons:
Intergenerational breakthroughs in power technology require significant vehicle weight reduction performance, which can be directly invested in lower cost structural components.
In today's manufacturing costs, batteries are a key issue for long battery life, not lightweight materials;
Electric vehicles lack external incentives for (expensive) weight loss measures, unlike internal combustion engines that have carbon emissions targets and corresponding penalties.
According to the current situation of vehicles to be listed, the trend of cost design will continue.
4. An electric car is a completely different vehicle and it requires completely different supply logic.Automakers need to look at their business models to create new revenue and profits for electric vehicles. Today, they are also highly dependent on consumer vehicle upgrade requirements, such as increased engine, gearbox, comfort and safety configurations, and increased after-sales accessories and services to increase profitability (and achieve their capital costs).
The maintenance cost of electric vehicles is greatly reduced, and more subject to optional components, for two reasons:
Performance differences are scarce. In the same market segment, existing electric vehicles have been able to withstand the acceleration performance of high internal combustion engines. However, compared to the previous 10 to 20 modes of internal combustion engine powertrains, electric vehicles now offer no more than four engine and transmission combinations.
The basic electric vehicle configuration already includes many options. Due to the high cost of the battery, the basic price of the electric vehicle is very high, so that the main engine factory puts more options than the fuel vehicle in the basic configuration of an electric vehicle, thereby losing high profit.
In the three aspects of necessary capacity, added value and component complexity, the electric power system is significantly different from the internal combustion engine. The increase in sales of electric vehicles threatens the competitive position and market share of OEMs and internal combustion engine suppliers.
Based on the supplier logo printed on the disassembled parts and the public information that can be found, we obtained an external and internal observation of the electric vehicle power system supply chain. The OEM has adopted different strategies in the outsourced powertrain, from vertical integration to complete outsourcing of components. When the parts are completely outsourced, the degree of ownership of the design also changes.
Under the premise that the components of most electric power systems are less complex, the development potential is lower, and it is difficult to differentiate, once the design is completely commercialized, we expect the OEM to outsource most of the power systems in the future. .
At the same time, we can see significant risks from established OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers. Some Tier 1 suppliers already have a significant share of their original core areas. And because electric vehicles are less complex than internal combustion engine power systems, the higher risk that OEMs face is how to differentiate in driving performance.
It is worth noting that two of the top five electric vehicle manufacturers are from newly joined members, one is Tesla and the other is BYD.
As demand grows, electric vehicles will continue to innovate in technology and design, and strategic challenges will follow. Old-fashioned OEMs and traditional suppliers need to rethink how to protect their original benefits.
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