Appliance industry leading performance is expected to exceed expectations

It is understood that the end consumer electronics industry began to gradually improve in the pull of demand, the industry's performance in the third quarter will be better than the first half. When the industry bottomed out, it is precisely when it is laid out that the three quarterly earnings are expected to exceed expectations.

The growth rate of income in the first and third quarters was positive in the first half of the year. Affected by the sluggish real estate market and the withdrawal of home appliance replacement policies, the development of the household appliance industry was severe. After a period of adjustment, with the recovery of terminal sales, the industry's revenue in the third quarter is expected to improve from the second quarter decline to the same period last year.

Analyst Zhou Haichen of Shenyin Wanguo Securities believes that the overall demand situation of the household appliance industry in the third quarter has recovered from the previous period. It is expected that the growth rate of the industry's revenue will improve year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate will increase from 5% in the second quarter to 3.9% year-on-year. . However, the subsidized New Deal launched the clean-up of channel non-subsidized product inventory, and the industry shipment data was lower than market expectations. Wang Xiaoying, an analyst at Guojin Securities, also stated that although the household appliance industry sales in the third quarter did not exceed expectations, the raw material costs fell more than expected, and the white goods and kitchen appliances industry had a better competitive landscape. The quarterly report will remain fine.

In addition, some of the leading companies in the third quarter of last year or even in the first half of this year, due to destocking or vigorous promotion affect the growth rate of the same period revenue or profit margins, the third quarter year-on-year or quarterly net profit growth rate showed a clear improvement.

Has announced the three quarterly advance notice of the performance of home appliance companies, basically in line with market expectations. According to statistics, as of yesterday, a total of 35 stocks in the household appliance industry disclosed three quarterly advance notices, of which the performance increased by 20, which accounted for 57% of the total. Among them, Shenzhou-based Shenlong Konka continued to maintain its growth momentum in the first three quarters of the year and lost money year-on-year; Supor, which reported a year-on-year decline in its second-quarter results, expects its net profit in the first three quarters of the year to rise by a maximum of 10% year-on-year. In addition, Tongzhou Electronics and Boss Electrical Appliances continued to maintain a steady growth momentum in the third quarter.

The home appliance industry's performance in the third quarter will be better than that in the first half of the year. CIVC analyst He Wei said that first benefiting energy-saving subsidies will drive consumption upgrades; secondly, e-commerce will disrupt the channel competition structure, channel bargaining power will decline, and the sales cost of home appliance companies will be presented. In the end, the demand for color TVs and kitchen appliances picked up, and the price of ice-washed products was increased.

Second, attention to performance exceeded expectations The company is due to the market expected to turn better, the recent emergence of home appliance stocks stronger than the general trend. Some analysis pointed out that there is no rule out that there are funds in the industry at the point of inflection point when the Jiancang operations. In contrast, in the forthcoming three quarterly reports, stocks that exceed market expectations are worthy of attention.

The industry leaders with higher certainty of annual performance will show better defensive attributes in the quarterly reporting period. Zhou Haichen pointed out that terminal demand is in a weak state of improvement, and with the low base effect in the fourth quarter and the tail-kicking of home appliances going out of the countryside at the end of November, the year-on-year sales growth of the industry in the fourth quarter is expected to improve, but it is still necessary to guard against the increase in raw material prices. The trend is still optimistic about the industry.

Combining the forecast of the three quarterly reports, we can focus on Qingdao Haier with better year-on-year business growth, higher than expected growth in air-conditioning business, Gree Electric Appliances with the best performance in the air-conditioning industry, and industry-leading Hisense Electric Appliances with improved black market demand and slower competition, as well as benefiting property sales. Recovery, industry concentration increased boss electronics.

In terms of stock selection, brokers have a high degree of consensus. Chang Jiang Securities analyst Zhu Zheng said that with the gradual recovery of terminal sales, home appliance segment performance is still expected to continue to maintain, leading advantages gradually demonstrated, performance growth has a stronger certainty. Devaluation of companies with strong performance certainty or exceeding expectations in the third quarter.