The first half of the lighting price index analysis

In the first half of 2012, affected by the continuous impact of domestic real estate control policies, and the economic downturn in the US and Europe, the tightly connected lighting market was facing a grim situation. The overall turnover was significantly lower than the same period of last year, and the market was deserted. According to the data, in the first half of this year, the wholesale price index of ancient town lighting supported fatigue and the index oscillated downwards. In addition to the month-on-month and month-on-month movements of the index in January and February, the rest of April was floating green, and the total index in June fell by an average of 6.17% from January. The difference between the highest point and the lowest point in half a year reached 9.74%. Observed in the dimension of one year before and one year, the index of this six-month period has continuously approached the low level since the creation of the Guzhen Lighting Price Index in the overall downturn. The persistent downturn in the lighting market is evident, and the industry is full of cautious wait-and-see sentiment.

In the first half of the first half of the year, the trend of the series of indicators index lighting, commercial lighting, outdoor lighting and light source series index in the broader market weakened, the market performance is not satisfactory: First, the outdoor lighting series index drops the most obvious, in June The monthly average index was 78.9 points, which was a 7.83% decrease from January. Fourth, fifth, and sixth consecutive months were hovering around historical lows. Compared with the sharp rises and falls of the previous three months, there was a bizarre performance. Outdoor lighting products have always been price fluctuations. The largest series, the weakening of volatility in the past three months, appears to be a weak performance of the three major sources of purchase of the real estate market, municipal engineering and park construction; second, the performance of the main lighting series index is not satisfactory, the month of June The average index was 105.8 points, down by 6.87% from January. The growth of terminal demand for lighting products was weak. The main pressure was from the deepening of real estate policy regulation. Under the influence of its weight, the overall market weakened downwards. III. Commercial lighting series index 6 The monthly average was 111.7 points, a six-year decrease of 6.45%. The competition in commercial lighting products was fierce and was affected by market supply and demand, material prices, and products. Affected by many factors, such as new, under the specifications tend to be more standardized for the same level of price competition; Fourth, the light source series of June average of 107.6 points, half a year down 3.50%, standardization of light source products and low profits It gradually concentrates on the high-volume manufacturing of large companies, and competes in the control technology of the highest level of automation in the production technologies with the highest level of automation. Since the beginning of this year, with the clear definition of rare earth resources and the steady increase in the supply of rare earths, the source of light Compared with last year, prices have shown a steady and steady decline; V. In the series of large fluctuations in the LED series, the monthly average in the first half of the year has risen by 3.05%. Although it has shown a slight upward trend, it is mainly affected by April and June. With the promotion of the exhibition, LED products have become the focus of the lighting industry, and some of the new products have been driven by rising prices. If the effect of these two months is deducted, LED technology, the fastest growing lighting product, will continue to decline due to technological advances and production surges. "The increase in price or price" will be a feature of its long-term development.

Second, the first half of the lighting price index analysis of the reasons for the trend since last year, the phenomenon of the lighting market downgraded gradually deeper across the first half of 2012, the first two months due to the Spring Festival holiday and the "opening out of stock" in the practice of small gains, In the following four months, due to the domestic macroeconomic and basic industry conditions, there has been no significant improvement. The domestic lighting demand has weakened, but the lighting and lighting industry is still in an active expansion period. Competition in the industry is still fierce. The oversupply of all series of products has led to a decline in prices; The decline in prices led to a significant downward trend in the overall price index for lighting wholesale in the first half of the year.

(a) The property market has continued to regulate and control policies, and home decoration demand has shrunk. In the first half of the year, the central government "continued to make clear and unrestrained control, and stability policy expectations" was set as the main policy of real estate policies. The domestic property market control policy continued. All regions maintained "limit purchase" and "price limit" measures, significantly reducing the speculative space for speculation in the property market. The wait-and-see mood in the property market, coupled with the decline in rigid demand for purchasing power, caused a dismal sales in the real estate market and directly impacted downstream lighting and other industries. Affected by the shrinking market demand, the adjustment pressure in the domestic lighting market continued to increase in the first half of the year, and the price index of each series was either overcast or fluctuating. The negative momentum of various time periods and the decline in overall demand prevailed.

(b) The production costs are high, but the prices are transmitted under pressure. Since the beginning of this year, although the price of raw materials has partially declined in the lighting manufacturing industry, the peripheral production costs have remained high. Affected by factors such as higher rents, higher transportation costs, and increased labor costs, lighting manufacturers are facing double pressures of increased production costs and weak demand. , afraid to raise prices or even forced to cut prices in order to "take the amount" to maintain the production chain operation. The double squeezed situation caused the lighting industry's gross profit space to be greatly reduced, and manufacturers' enthusiasm for expanding production or research and development of new products was frustrated. On the one hand, some manufacturers voted for the introduction of new machines to replace some of the manual labor force to ease the "labour shortage" and "labor height." The pressure, on the other hand, many manufacturers take the "order to produce" model, reducing the amount of daily work.

(3) The deceleration in the domestic economy has constrained the upside of lighting prices. Although the overall cost of production has risen, the wholesale price of lighting has theoretically increased requirements, but it is incapable. Because the domestic economy has slowed down this year, lighting domestic demand has weakened, and naturally it also restricts the room for upward lighting prices. According to statistics, the domestic GDP in the first half of the year increased by 7.8% year-on-year, with an increase of 8.1% in the first quarter and 7.6% in the second quarter, setting a new low of three years since the second quarter of 2009 (7.9%). The real growth of fixed asset investment was 18.0%, which was 5.2 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. The economic slowdown was quite obvious. Lighting products in all series, in addition to light source, commercial and home base lighting products have a certain degree of demand stability, the traditional decorative lighting is most affected by the economic environment, when the general decline in social purchasing power, the sales of such products The decline is relatively large, and it is the index with the largest weight, and the impact on the overall index is also most obvious.

(d) The international economic situation has been partially deteriorated and the export situation is not optimistic. Looking back at 2011, in the shadow of the financial crisis, with the European debt crisis, the credit ratings of the United States and other countries have been lowered, and inflation in emerging market countries has increased, the international environment is facing new uncertainties and complexity. In the first half of 2012, Greece’s debt crisis intensified and opened the Pandora’s box of debt crisis in Europe. Subsequently, the crisis spread to Belgium, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and many other countries, and the sovereign debt of the Euro-zone pillars France and Germany also faced challenges. The debt crisis began to spread from the peripheral countries of the euro zone to the core countries, the global economy shrouded in Under the shadow of European debt. Uncertainties in the global economic outlook have, to a certain extent, affected the confidence of the market, and have had a stronger influence on the export of lighting products in Zhongshan. The EU is China’s largest export market, and currently accounts for about 18% to 21% of China’s export market. Currently, the external demand from the EU has shown a downward trend. Once the protectionism of certain countries in Europe and America will rise, the export situation will be Not optimistic.

Third, the second half of the lighting price index outlook For the second half of the market, from the current situation, the domestic property market recovery, economic growth, the market demand is not a short time can be achieved, so the second half of the town lighting The market will continue the weak market. However, based on the annual cyclical pattern of the lighting industry, from September to October in previous years, there was a clear support for the peak season. Many companies also looked forward to optimistic expectations in the second half of the year. The author believes that the trend of the lighting market in Guzhen Town in the second half of the year: First, the overall trend is characterized by “weakening oscillations”, and it will be very difficult for the sustained upward trend to occur. Second, the overall price level will be lower than the second half of last year; the third is the price. The low period will be in the second quarter or the fourth quarter, while the high season will be in the third quarter, but its price estimate will not have much room for growth. In other words, the market situation in the third quarter will have some improvement over the second quarter.

The main reasons for the above price movements are as follows:

First, this year, China's economic growth has slowed down significantly, which will have a greater impact on domestic demand for lighting products. In particular, the continuous regulation of the real estate industry will have a considerable impact on the market demand for decorative lighting, thus inhibiting lighting. The rebound in prices makes the overall price level lower than last year.

Second, the global economic outlook is uncertain, especially the shadow of the European debt crisis will be overshadowed for a long time. China's export situation is still severe. In the second half of the year, due to the concentration of exhibitions and the demand for festival decoration in Europe and the United States, it is expected that the lighting export situation in the third quarter will improve, but the export situation in the latter period may become severe. It is expected that the export of lighting products will face a significant decrease in growth rate this year. .

Third, the lighting index continued to decline in the second quarter of this year. By the end of June, the lighting market entered the seasonal adjustment stage. Despite the sluggish environment, the traditional peak season factors in September and October will also play a role. However, it is difficult for the index market to have strong characteristics in previous years. It is very likely that the index will weaken again in the first two months of the year, which restricts the upward trend of lighting prices.